In comments, Karol says I’m in living in Fantasyland because I think that Giuliani has a chance of winning the presidency in 2008. “?Primaries are very contentious, and there’s no way Giuliani is getting out of one,” she writes. There’s no doubt that Giuliani faces obstacles to winning the presidency. But those who dismiss his chances as pure fantasy are severely underestimating the man, and misreading history.
Let me pose a question. Can you think of another politician who was ever discussed seriously as a presidential candidate whose primary political experience was being a mayor? Normally vice-presidents, senators, representatives or military leaders are mentioned as presidential timber, but I cannot recall a mayor’s name being tossed around so earnestly. Even though it’s early, even the biggest doubter of Giuliani has to admit that it’s highly unusual for a former mayor to be leading in polls both for his party’s nomination and for the general election itself. A Giuliani doubter may argue that his popularity will erode in a rough primary. But let us focus on the source of his popularity. I think it goes without saying that the popularity is a result of his leadership on Sept. 11. With that one event, Giuliani rose from being a lameduck mayor to a presidential contender. This gets to the heart of my point. I think Giuliani will win in 2008, because history is moving in that direction.
As Mark Helprin once wrote, “?History is in motion, and those moving with it are so caught up that they cannot always see its broad outlines.” I believe that those people who dismiss Giuliani’s chances are too caught up within the motion of history (the politics of abortion, gay rights, etc.) and are missing the broad outlines of our age. I’m sure that many of Giuliani’s doubters would acknowledge that terrorism is the defining issue of our time. I would go further to argue that not only is the fight against terrorism the defining issue of our time, but that it represents an epic event in the history of Western Civilization. When the history of this period is written, the politics of abortion and gay rights will be a mere footnote, but the battle against terrorism will take a prominent place. I believe that Giuliani is the best leader we have available to fight the terrorist threat, which is why I think that the course of history points toward Giuliani being president.
Winston Churchill was viewed as a washed-up laughingstock in the 1930s when he spoke of the Nazi menace. But history took its inevitable course, and by 1940 Churchill had ascended to the role of Prime Minister, because nobody else had the necessary guts and grit to lead the fight against Nazism. When we think about Churchill today, we think primarily of his leadership during World War II. We do not talk much about how he supported increasing taxes as a young member of parliament.
Like Churchill, Giuliani is a survivor and a man of tremendous will. As a prosecutor, Giuliani took down the mob and went after Wall Street’s power brokers. He lost a close bid for election in 1989, but fought back to a victory in 1993, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 5 to 1 margin in New York City. (Sure, Bloomberg did this too, but ran on Giuliani’s legacy and endorsement in 2001). Giuliani’s crimefighting and his transformation of New York City was the stuff of legend even before Sept. 11 catapulted him onto the national scene.
As Fred Siegel does a good job of illustrating in The Prince of the City, Giuliani did not suddenly become concerned with terrorism on Sept. 11. The terrorist threat has concerned him for most of his career. As a U.S. Attorney in the 1980s, Giuliani investigated the murder of Leon Klinghoffer, who was sitting in his wheelchair when he was thrown overboard from the Achilles Lauro cruise ship by Palestinian terrorists. As Siegel notes, Giuliani dedicated a good portion of his 1994 inauguration speech to the first attack on the World Trade Center. When Yasser Arafat visited New York in 1995, on the heels of his Nobel Peace Prize, Giuliani kicked him out of a U.N. event at Lincoln Center, amid widespread criticism. Giuliani was ridiculed as paranoid when he set up an emergency command center in New York City. Yes, the center turned out to be poorly located in 7 World Trade Center, which was destroyed on Sept. 11, but Giuliani must be given credit for thinking of these things far before 9/11.
Some people may cast asside my theory about the intersection of Giuliani and history. But given the man’s record of overcoming long odds, of achieving things that many people once viewed as impossible, I cannot see how anybody can dismiss Giuliani’s chances in 2008, let alone call a possible victory mere fantasy.
Phil, is there a draft Rudy site? If not, there should be.
The closest sites I’ve found along those lines are:
http://rudy08.blogspot.com/
http://rudyforpresident.blogspot.com/
Excellent post! This war on terror is truly an epic moment for our civilization, and we need a leader who is a fighter, one who will get society to make tough decisions. Bush hasn’t done this, and I doubt either of his opponents would have done any better, but by ’08 we will really need a leader who can.