The Miers selection could bolster the chances of a strong social conservative getting nominated by Republicans in 2008. Now, obviously, a lot can change in the next two plus years. By Jan. 2008, her votes could end up making conservatives very happy. But if conservatives worst fears are realized and the Miers pick is still seen as a betrayal when the 2008 primary season rolls around, I think it’s much less likely that social conservatives would allow a Rudy Giuliani nomination.
As I have argued in the past, Giuliani’s capacity for leadership makes him uniquely suited for the battle we are facing against terrorism, and I firmly believe that all other issues take a back seat to this one. I thought the experience of Katrina clearly demonstrated why America needs to have a strong leader like Giuliani during a crisis.
But, with Bush possibly having missed an opportunity to shift the balance of the Supreme Court to the right, I think that social conservatives will demand more assurances than ever from any Republican candidate in 2008. And they may oppose a potential Giuliani nomination more vociferously than they would have otherwise, considering he has liberal views on abortion and gay rights. Again, a lot can change between now and 2008. But while Katrina may have been one data point that made a Giuliani nomination seem more plausible, the Miers pick is a data point that hurts Giuliani’s prospects.