I’m writing from CPAC in Washington, DC where there was just a panel discussion on Republican prospects in the 2006 elections. The big question is whether grassroots conservatives will turnout for Republicans as they have in the recent past. This issue is of supreme interest to me, and the subject of an article I wrote that will appear in the March issue of the American Spectator.
Michael Barone, the author of The Almanac of American Politics, has a knowledge of Congressional districts that’s hard to match. He said current polls showing Republicans trailing Democrats in Congressional races should be viewed with skepticism, because they poll “all adults” rather than “likely voters” and traditionally Republicans have been more likely to turn out. Barone emphasized how the jump in turnout in 2004 was nearly unprecedented for both Republicans and Democrats, but Republicans won the battle because of the efforts of 1.4 million grassroots volunteers. The big question is whether Republicans will be able to replicate this, given that the inability of Republicans to control spending and do something about illegal immigration has sapped a lot of enthusiasm from conservatives. He said, however, that there is always the possibility that Democrats will shoot themselves in the foot as they have in the past.
John Gizzi, the longtime political reporter at Human Events was a bit more pessimistic about Republicans’ chances. He said you can’t expect something to happen again just because it’s happened in the past. And while people say that only 25-30 House races will be competitive this year, he thinks far more will seats will be up for grabs. He made the point that 14 veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are running for the House, and 13 of them are running as Democrats. Gizzi said that given the dissatisfaction at the grassroots level, Democrats may be able to win on a theme of Iraq and corruption, even if they don’t present their own vision for governing (i.e. something along the lines of 1994′s Republican Contract With America).
Based on reporting I did for my Spectator article, in which I communicated with or received feedback from hundreds of conservative activists, I would say that frustration with Republicans at the grassroots level is palpable. Obviously, a lot can change between now and November, but Republican lawmakers have a lot of work to do to regain the faith of the party’s base. They are mistaken if they take it for granted that conservatives will donate their time and money as they have in the past.